UAE residents could experience a warmer, wetter winter this year, with temperatures, humidity and rainfall expected to be above their usual levels as El Niño influences weather across the region, according to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with Khaleej Times, Al Jarwan said the broad outlook pointed to warm and humid conditions through the cooler months, while stressing that the forecast should not be interpreted as a warning of inevitable floods. “Winter is expected to be warm and humid, with rainfall generally above normal levels,” he said.
Al Jarwan expects El Niño to reach its peak in November and December, with its effects continuing into February or March. However, he emphasised that seasonal outlooks describe broad trends, rather than the precise weather that individual places will experience.
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Why is it still warm?
Al Jarwan said both daytime highs and overnight lows had remained above their usual levels across much of the UAE at the time of the interview.
By mid-October, minimum temperatures would normally have settled below 20°C in many parts of the country, with some mountainous and higher-altitude areas falling below 15°C, he said. Instead, overnight readings in many areas had remained around 23°C to 24°C.
Daytime temperatures, meanwhile, were still exceeding 35°C across wide areas, rather than easing towards the low 30s, he added. He put the recent temperature difference at approximately 3°C to 5°C above normal, depending on the location and whether daytime or overnight readings were being considered.
Why this El Niño is considered strong
El Niño is associated with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, alongside changes in atmospheric circulation that can influence weather far beyond the ocean.
Al Jarwan explained that an ocean-temperature anomaly of about 0.5°C above average is associated with the onset of El Niño conditions. He said the difference commonly ranges from around 0.5°C to 2°C, but this year it has reached around 3°C a much larger anomaly that he described as a very strong El Niño.
He stressed that the 3°C figure refers to Pacific Ocean waters, not an equivalent rise in UAE air temperatures.
More rain does not automatically mean floods
Al Jarwan said the distinction between above-average rainfall and flood-producing downpours was important. “To be precise, we are expecting rainfall above normal levels,” he said.
Whether that rain causes flooding depends not only on the total amount but also on how quickly it falls, he explained. A large volume concentrated into a few days can have very different consequences from rainfall spread over several weeks.
He said flooding could not be ruled out, but the broad seasonal outlook alone was not enough to predict it.
Al Jarwan also noted that recent rain had not been evenly distributed. Several central, eastern and southern areas had received rain, with some eastern locations experiencing heavy showers and hail, while parts of the western coast had received less.
“We are talking about broad features and the general direction of the climate during autumn and winter,” he said.
How El Niño is affecting other countries this year
Outside the UAE, El Niño-linked effects are already being reported in 2026, with drought affecting farming and transport in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia.
In Sudan, Reuters reported on October 23 that July–September rainfall was the country’s lowest in more than three decades, citing US Geological Survey data. The El Niño-linked drought was damaging crops and pasture, compounding a hunger crisis also driven by conflict and displacement.
In Indonesia, Reuters reported on October 19 that drought associated with this year’s El Niño had lowered the Kapuas River in West Kalimantan, grounding barges and disrupting palm-oil transport.
With storage filling up and mills limiting purchases, smallholder farmers were left unable to sell their fruit. The provincial palm-oil association said 13 of the region’s 50 mills had been affected.
The World Meteorological Organization also warned this month that warmer conditions and rainfall deficits in Southeast Asia were putting pressure on agriculture and water supplies and increasing wildfire and smoke-haze risks.
Its latest seasonal outlook points to wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of East Africa and a greater risk of dry conditions in Southern Africa from November, although these remain regional forecasts rather than predictions of individual weather events.
Source: Khaleej Times
